The Central Bank of Russia continues to estimate the long-term neutral key rate at 1-2% in real terms and at 5-6% in nominal terms. And this means that the Bank of Russia will reduce the rate to these levels.
But this is bad news: with the global crisis and deteriorating geopolitical situation, the RF economy may return to growth (0-1%) only in 2025.
The price of Urals oil in 2025 will return to its long-term equilibrium level of $55/bbl. The Central Bank expects a record current account surplus of $243 bln in 2022, falling to $15 bln in 2025.
It turns out that normal imports will recover only by 2022. Recall that the current account surplus makes the national currency stronger. So the ruble by all projections so far looks strong.
